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The March 5 primary election results suggest that San Benito County’s reputation as an effective predictor of state results is still intact. The lone exception is the state’s Proposition 1, which was defeated by a sizable percentage in the county but passed in an almost even contest statewide.
Overall, the county’s trend of voting in larger numbers for Democratic Party candidates continued, reflecting the almost unchanged balance between the parties, though certain incumbents, like State Senator John Laird and U.S. Representative Zoe Lofgren, had closer contests within San Benito County than in their respective districts.
Favorite son and incumbent Robert Rivas saw a significant weakening in his results—a surprise considering his elevation to the state speakership, the second most powerful position in California politics.
Below are comparisons between the 2020 and 2024 primary elections. They include participation, party and age demographics, and the results of individual races on a county and state level. All the information reflects the county and state final and certified counts.
Election participation
Though a smaller percentage of San Benito County voters participated in the 2024 election compared to the turnout in 2020 primary (36.3% vs. 53.5%) and a smaller number of votes were cast (13,134 vs. 17,346), the county still had higher voter participation than the statewide results. Eligible voters who have not done so already have until Oct. 21 to register to vote in time for the Nov. 5 general election.
| Primary Year | Eligible Voters | Registered Voters | Votes Cast |
| San Benito 2020 | 38,254 | 32,407 (84.8%) | 17,346 (53.5%) |
| San Benito 2024 | 43,551 | 36,109 (82.9%) | 13,134 (36.3%) |
| Statewide 2020 | 25,251,216 | 20,660,465 (81.8%) | 9,687,076 (46.8%) |
| Statewide 2024 | 26,638,018 | 22,077,333 (82.9%) | 7,710,378 (34.9%) |
Voter turnout by method of voting
In the county, Democrats and Republicans represented 72.5% of the voters in 2020 and 75.1% in 2024. A large percentage of voters did not express a party preference in either election, but the number of uncommitted voters has dropped by 9% over the last four years.
Both parties saw an increase in their share of voters, with Democrats increasing by 15% and Republicans increasing by 16%. However, the parties maintained a 64% to 36% correspondence between them in both elections.
In primary elections, voters are assigned ballots based on party preferences. In California, those with no affiliation are given the option to “cross over” and receive partisan rather than “no-party” ballots. In the 2024 primary, 202 “no party preference” voters asked for Democratic ballots, 46 asked for American Independent ballots and seven asked for Libertarian ballots. (The Republican Party does not allow crossover voting.)
| Primary Year | Mail-In Voting | In-Person Voting | Total Cast |
| March 2020 | 14,931 (86.1%) | 2,415 (13.9%) | 17,346 |
| March 2024 | 12,118 (92.3%) | 1,016 (7.7%) | 13,134 (-24.3%) |
Though 4,212 fewer county voters participated in the 2024 primary, the percentage voting by mail markedly increased this year. In addition, the county’s eligible voter population increased by almost 14% (5,297), while the number of registered voters increased by only 11% (3,656).
| Party | 2020 | 2024 | Growth/Decline |
| American Independent | 996 (3.1%) | 1,435 (4.0%) | +46% |
| Democrat | 15,067 (46.4%) | 17,252 (47.8%) | +15% |
| Green Party | 107 (0.9%) | 156 (0.4%) | +46% |
| Libertarian | 290 (0.9% ) | 444 (1.2%) | +53% |
| Peace and Freedom | 130 (0.4%) | 191 (0.5%) | +47% |
| Republican | 8,468 (26.1%) | 9,852 (27.3%) | +16% |
| No Party | 7,395 (22.8%) | 6,779 (18.8%) | -9.1% |
County voters by age
Participation by the 65+ age group was highest in percentage for the 2020 election (19.31%) and the 2024 election (20.2%). In 2024, that group gained 1,033 voters. However, the 36-45 age group is the fastest rising, increasing by 20.3% in 2024, which represents 1,051 more voters.
The 46-55 and 56-65 age groups showed little growth, increasing around 3.5% each. The combined increase for the two age groups represents a gain of only 398 votes. With the higher growth elsewhere, the group lost 2.4 percentage points between 2020 and 2024.
| Year | 17.5 – 25 | 26 – 35 | 36 – 45 | 46 – 55 | 56 – 65 | 65+ |
| 2020 | 4,396(13.6%) | 5,525 (17.0%) |
5,158(15.9%) | 5,348(16.5%) | 5,758(17.7%) | 6,268(19.3%) |
| 2024 | 4,897 (13.6%) |
6,198 (17.2%) |
6,209 (17.2%) |
5,537 (15.3%) |
5,967 (16.5%) |
7,301 (20.2%) |
| % Change | 11.4% | 12.2% | 20.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 16.4% |
State and national offices
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate candidates Steve Garvey (Rep.) and Adam Schiff (Dem.) were the top vote-getters in the state and county elections and will face off in the general election. Garvey took first place in the county (4,269 votes; 33.4%) and second statewide (2,301,293 votes; 31.5%). Schiff reversed the ranking, taking second place in the county (4,108 votes; 32.2%) and first statewide (2,304,811 votes; 31.6%).
Garvey led Schiff by 1.2 points or 161 votes in the county. However, Schiff led Garvey by 0.1 points or 3,518 votes statewide. The closeness of the contest can be attributed to Schiff splitting the vote with two strong Democratic candidates, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, who took a combined 19.3% of the vote. Overall, Democrats showed a significant advantage against Republicans, with 54.1% vs. 43.8% of the vote in the county and 59.5% vs. 39% statewide. Assuming party-line voting, this bodes well for Schiff in the general election in both the county and the state.
| Total Votes By Party | Countywide | Statewide |
| American Independent | 87 (0.1%) | 13,140 (0.02%) |
| Democratic | 6,904 (54.1%) | 4,341,364 (59.5%) |
| Republican | 5,589 (43.8%) | 2,841,626 (39.2%) |
| Libertarian | 87 votes (0.1%) | 33,292 (0.05%) |
| No Party Preference | 177 votes (1.3%) | 71,750 (1%) |
| Votes Cast | 12,769 | 71,750 |
House of Representatives District 18
The contest between Lofgren and Peter Hernandez was much closer in the county (44% to 43.3%) than in the district-wide results (51.2% to 32.8%), which may be attributable to Hernandez’s status as a favorite son candidate.
As with California’s U.S. Senate election, the democratic vote was split, with possible votes for the incumbent, Lofgren, being drained by Charlene Concepcion Nijmeh, her strongest primary opponent, and two other challengers.
Overall, there were 64,749 votes cast district-wide for the four Democrat candidates against 31,665 for Hernandez, the sole Republican nominee. Countywide, the total for the Democratic candidates was 7,240 votes opposed to 5,518 for Hernandez.
For the House of Representatives race it’s difficult to compare the 2024 election results to those of 2020. First, there was a smaller voter turnout this year—a 4,588-vote decrease districtwide and a 90,374-vote decrease statewide. Second, there were no candidates in common between the two elections. Third, redistricting changed the geography and voter demographics.
Countywide 2020 (District 20)
Votes cast: 17,346
Jimmy Panetta (Dem.): 10,416 (61.6%)
Jeff Gorman (Rep.): 4,985 (29.5%)
Adam Bolaños Scow (Dem.): 1,507 (8.9%)
Countywide 2024
Votes Cast: 12,758
Zoe Lofgren (Dem.): 5,613 (44.0%)
Peter D. Hernandez (Rep.): 5,518 (43.3%)
Charlene Concepcion Nijmeh (Dem.): 1,211 (9.5%)
Luele N. Kifle (Dem.): 140 (1.1%)
Lawrence Milan (Dem.): 276 (2.2%)
Districtwide
Votes Cast: 96,414
Zoe Lofgren (Dem.): 49,370 (51.2%)
Peter D. Hernandez (Rep.): 31,665 (32.8%)
Charlene Concepcion Nijmeh (Dem.): 10,631 (11.0%)
Luele N. Kifle (Dem.): 2,034 (2.1%)
Lawrence Milan (Dem.): 2714 (2.8%)
State Assembly District 29
The differences between the 2022 and 2024 Assembly votes are complicated by the county being in two different districts for those elections. Because the geographic areas and demographics changed, it’s difficult to draw comparisons between the two.
However, all of San Benito County was included in both elections, and a comparison can be made there. In 2024, Rivas suffered a 3.8-point drop in popularity compared to 2020, while his opponent gained an identical amount. However, the small shift in votes did not present a significant challenge to Rivas, who still won what would be considered a landslide victory.
Countywide 2020 (District 30)
Votes cast: 17,346
Robert Rivas (Dem.): 10639 (64.9%)
Gregory Swett (Rep.): 5748 (35.1%)
Countywide 2024
Votes Cast: 12,693
Robert Rivas (Dem.): 7,760 (61.1%)
J.W. Paine (Rep.): 4,933 (38.9%)
Districtwide 2024
Votes Cast: 62,901
Robert Rivas (Dem.): 40,756 (64.8%)
J.W. Paine (Rep.): 22,145 (35.2%)
State Senate District 17
As with the Assembly election, the total votes cast for the Democratic and Republican candidates were much closer countywide (50.9% to 47.4%) than statewide (64.5% to 33.5%). While this suggests, on a party-line vote, that Democrat John Laird seems likely to be reelected, the countywide vote will be very close.
Prior to 2024, San Benito County was part of state Senate District 12 and was represented by Anna Caballero. Since there was no election for District 12 in 2020, there was no relevant comparison with this election.
Countywide
Votes Cast: 12,498
John Laird (Dem.): 6,361 (50.9%)
Tony Virrueta (Rep.): 4,107 (32.9%)
Eric Tao (Rep.): 1,816 (14.5%)
Michael Oxford (LIB): 214 (1.7%)
Districtwide
Votes Cast: 223,004
John Laird (Dem.): 143,779 (64.5%)
Tony Virrueta (Rep.): 48,800 (21.9%)
Eric Tao (Rep.): 25,831 (11.6%)
Michael Oxford (LIB): 4,591 (2.1%)
Proposition 1
Proposition 1 was the closest contest statewide in the election and does not reflect the broad bipartisan support the measure had in the legislature before going to the voters. It passed the Senate in a 66-0 vote with six abstentions and passed the Assembly in a 35-2 vote with three abstentions.
Perhaps more surprising is San Benito County’s firm rejection of the measure by more than 10 points. This was the only ballot item where county voters did not serve as a predictor of the state vote.
Countywide
Votes cast: 12,637
No: 6,962 (55.1%)
Yes: 5,675 (44.9%)
Statewide
Votes cast: 7,247,114
Yes: 3,636,678 (50.2%)
No: 3,610,436 (49.8%)
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